ESPC House Price Report: September 2023

Property Market Data - Key Points:

  • The average selling price for property in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders was £281,513, down 5% year-on-year.
  • Sales volumes declined 15.9% annually, while new property insertions fell 3.1%.
  • Properties took a median time of 20 days to go under offer.
  • Buyers paid on average 103.9% of the Home Report valuation, down 4.4 percentage points.
  • 25.8% of properties for sale went to a closing date.
  • The availability of homes listed for a fixed price rose 29% year-on-year.

Average selling prices declined across the regions

The average selling price of properties in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders declined 5% year-on-year during July-September 2023, taking the new average to £281,513. In line with previous months, the current financial climate and the uncertainty surrounding the mortgages market, the figures may also be affected by a traditionally lower period of activity across the summer months.

The Scottish Borders experienced the biggest decrease in average selling prices, with an 11.4% decline meaning the new average there was £224,464. Meanwhile, East Fife saw an 11% rise in average selling prices, with a new average of £317,081. It is important to note that these figures may be due to individual properties selling for extraordinary figures during July-September in 2022 and 2023, which could affect the data, rather than substantial rises or falls in the regions’ overall values.

Edinburgh’s average selling price was £298,495: an annual decrease of 5.3%. If we examine the individual areas of the Capital, the city centre experienced a 12.8% decline, meaning the average selling price for a property was £310,069. While this figure may appear concerning at first glance, ESPC data reveals that it is all due to the types of properties sold last year compared to this year. In July-September 2022, 16 properties sold for over £1million, while during the same period this year, just 3 properties had a selling price of over £1million, affecting the average selling prices reported.

Conversely, the suburbs in the North West of the city saw a rise of 10.1%, with properties there selling for £307,706 on average, while the South West rose 2.2%, to £355,486, showing how in-demand family homes continue to be in the Capital.

Four-bedroom houses in the popular Edinburgh suburb of Corstorphine were the most expensive property type, selling for £537,028 on average. At the other end of the scale, one-bedroom flats in Dunfermline were the most affordable, with an average selling price of £117,880 making them exceptionally appealing prospects for first-time buyers and those with smaller budgets.

Average selling prices overall may be affected by the increased prevalence of homes listed for fixed price (levels of which have risen 29% annually), which are likely to be listed much closer to their Home Report valuation, rather than opening them up for overbids.

Buyers make savvy bids to secure a property

In line with trends seen in previous months, properties have seen a decline in the amount of the Home Report valuation buyers were willing to pay. During July-September 2023, homes attained 103.9% of their Home Report valuation on average, down 4.4 percentage points on the figures seen in July-September 2022. This is a trend we have seen over the last few months which continues to indicate the impact of affordability and the mortgages market on property prices,

The biggest declines were seen in East Lothian and West Lothian, where buyers paid 6.1 percentage points less over the valuation figure than the same time last year. However, while this meant that buyers in West Lothian paid the least over valuation overall, at 101.1% on average, East Lothian buyers were still bidding the most over the Home Report valuation compared to all the ESPC regions, offering 104.9% on average.

In Edinburgh, properties in the sought-after South of the city achieved the highest figures, with buyers paying an average of 106.8% for their ideal home.

80.3% of properties for sale sold for at least their Home Report valuation, down from 92.3% last year. With the rise in the availability of fixed-price properties on the market, this may be affecting these figures, with some homes marketed in this way listed for less than their Home Report valuation in order to secure a quicker sale.

25.8% of homes for sale across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders had a closing date set, down from 35.5% last year – again, this demonstrates how much the market has cooled, but in all has returned most closely to figures seen in 2019.

Homes took longer to sell, but two-bed flats remained incredibly sought-after

Properties for sale in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders had a median selling time of 20 days during July-September 2023, six days slower than the same time last year.

All areas were slower to sell, but West Lothian was the slowest, with a median selling time of 38 days – 21 days longer than the same time last year.

Properties in West Fife & Kinross went under offer in just 14 days, making this the quickest-selling region during this period.

In Edinburgh, homes in the East of the city (spanning popular areas such as Leith, Abbeyhill, Portobello and Joppa) were the fastest to sell, going under offer in a median time of 18 days.

In terms of property types, two-bedroom flats in popular Bonnington sold the fastest overall, with a median selling time of just nine days – 17 days quicker than the same time last year, which shows how popular this trendy area is becoming with buyers. Similarly, two-bedroom flats in Dunfermline had a selling time of only 11 days, again demonstrating how in-demand this locale continues to be.

Sales volumes and insertions both declined as market slows in comparison to 2022

Following on from the extraordinary levels of activity recorded in both 2021 and 2022, it is not a surprise to see that both sales volumes and insertions have declined during July-September 2023, as the market settles and there is less movement from buyers and sellers.

Overall, sales volumes declined 15.9% year-on-year, while new property listings were down 3.1%.

Two-bedroom flats in Leith sold in the highest volumes; however, it should be noted that these levels were down 15% on those seen during July-September 2022. Three-bedroom houses in Dunfermline were second-highest, however again the sales volumes were lower than last year, falling 12.2%.

In line with this, Dunfermline had the highest number of properties listed for sale, but this figure was 4.8% lower than that of July-September 2022. Leith came a close second, while the insertions there were down 8.5% year-on-year.

What does it all mean for the property market?

Paul Hilton, CEO of ESPC, said: “July-September 2023 has clearly been a slower time for the Scottish property market, particularly as we are making comparisons to the extraordinary activity we have seen over the two or three previous summers. While some of these figures may appear concerning, it is important to remember that the property prices and demand are not falling as such, rather returning to a more normal base level.

“The impact of the current financial climate has clearly been felt, with many buyers and sellers cautious about affordability, mortgages and finances overall. With the recent stay in interest rates, perhaps we may see this reflected in the data from next month onwards, as buyers may feel more positive about their prospects. We are already seeing a reduction in mortgage interest rates of new products coming to the market, which may reassure some and help in terms of affordability – but the real impact on the market will be clear in the coming months.

“While demand has slowed overall, and we understand this may be a concern for property owners and sellers, it’s also key to look at the positives. The market is continuing to become more accessible to first-time buyers, with an increase in fixed price homes and decreases in the amount over Home Report valuation buyers are expected to bid and the number of closing dates set, meaning the market is more accessible for those with lower budgets. While the exceptional figures we have seen in recent years were great news for sellers, the market was extremely tricky for buyers and there are many positives to be found in that evening out. The pricing strategy is absolutely key, whether you are buying or selling a home, and with access to unique market data, no one is better placed to guide you to property success than an ESPC solicitor estate agent.

“Coastal areas like East Fife, East Lothian and the East of Edinburgh continue to be hugely popular with buyers, and of course, Leith and Dunfermline remain two of the most popular areas to buy and sell property.

“If you’re thinking of buying or selling a property in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife or the Borders, contact your local ESPC solicitor estate agent today.”

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