ESPC House Price Report April 2023

Property market data: Key points

During February-April 2023, the average selling price of property across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife, and the Borders declined by 1.1% annually, taking the new figure to £267,679.
Sales volumes dropped 8.6% annually during this period, while new property listings decreased by 3.7%.
The median selling time of property was 28 days, continuing the trend we’ve seen recently of selling times returning to pre-Covid norms.
On average, 76.6% of properties sold for their Home Report valuation or higher, with the average property achieving 102.7% of Home Report valuation at sale.
A total of 23.8% of properties went to a closing date.

Demand slows down

The period of February to April 2023 shows clear signs that the housing market in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders is continuing to calm, following years of high demand and high price growth.

For the first time in a number of years, selling prices recorded a small decline when compared annually. Between February and April 2023, the average selling price of property across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders fell by 1.1% year-on-year, now standing at £267,679.

However, this is substantially higher than the same period in 2019, when the average selling price was £242,840 (relevant as this was the last year before the Covid boom). Many sellers will be experiencing equity gains within their property over this time, and as onwards buyers shouldn't be discouraged by this slight overall average decline.

Midlothian recorded the highest price increase over the past three months with the average selling price rising 14.1% annually to £263,535. This was followed by West Fife & Kinross where the average selling price increased by 7.9% to £211,740.

The City of Edinburgh saw property prices fall by 2.6% to £267,679.

Two bed flats were particularly popular in the City of Edinburgh. In Stockbridge, Comely Bank, Fettes and Canonmills the average selling price rose by 12.1% to £327,435 for two-bedroom flats. Nearby, in Trinity, Newhaven and Inverleith the average selling price of two-bedroom flats was £287,943 – an increase of 10.9% year-on-year.

Sellers adopt a cautious approach

In February-April 2023, new property listings in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders were down by 3.7% year-on-year as some homeowners have adopted a more cautious approach to selling their home. Despite a calming of the market, there are still lots of interested buyers keen to secure their next home which should provide reassurance to would-be sellers.

There was an increase in listings in some of ESPC’s traditionally popular areas. Dunfermline saw a rise of 23.8%, whilst listings in Corstorphine increased by 22.6%) and new property listings rose by 10.5% in Leith.

Demand slows down

Overall property sales volumes across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders reduced by 8.6% annually, as buyers have enjoyed the opportunity to take a little longer to make their decision on home purchases. Most areas have reported a decline in overall sales volumes: 19.3% down in West Fife & Kinross, 11.7% in the Borders, 11% in the City of Edinburgh, 7.5% in West Lothian and 2.6% in East Lothian

However, both East Fife and Midlothian bucked this trend with a respective 40% and 4% increase of property sales compared to the same period last year.

Good interest in buying and selling despite market changes

Despite the recent market changes, owning a home is still a good long-term investment and demand for quality local housing stock remains, albeit at a much calmer pace than has been seen recently.

In February-April 2023, 76.6% of properties sold for their Home Report valuation or higher, with the average property achieving 102.7% of Home Report valuation at sale – highlighting that buyers in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife, and the Borders are keen to secure their next home, but are reacting to wider market influences including higher interest rates.

However, if we compare the data back to February to April 2019 when 75.2% of properties sold for their Home Report valuation or higher, and property sales achieved 102.7% of Home Report valuation on average at sale, we can see that the reported year-on-year figures are likely more natural market restablisation.

East Lothian continued to be popular with buyers, with the highest percentage above Home Report valuation achieved at 104%, down 4.1 percentage points annually, highlighting localised changes in the market. This was followed by the City of Edinburgh where the percentage of Home Report valuation attained was 102.8% - a decline of 3.3 percentage points annually.

Buyers still keen to secure their dream home

The ferocious pace of the market from the last few years has continued to readjust to wider market influences with the median time for properties to go under offer lengthening to 28 days. This is 12 days slower than last year, however only two days slower than in February – April 2019 once again highlighting the natural readjustment of the market.

Whilst all ESPC areas saw a lengthening of the median time to sell, homes went under offer the fastest in West Fife & Kinross in a median time of 20 days, eight days slower year-on-year. This was followed by East Lothian where properties went under offer in 25 days, 10 days slower annually.

Properties in the City of Edinburgh continued the trend, taking a median of 28 days to go under offer, 10 days slower compared to the same period last year.

What does it all mean?

Paul Hilton, CEO of ESPC, said: “The period of February-April 2023 has seen the property market continue to rebalance after an unprecedented period which led to low housing stock and high demand, as well as high selling prices and incredibly quick selling times. Coupled with rising interest rates and the cost-of-living crisis, this led to buyers acting with caution, but the housing market is still performing strongly despite speculation to the contrary.

“The levelling off of house prices and the slightly slower median selling times is a sign the market is rebalancing and activity is returning to 2019 levels. Properties are still selling well and most are attracting a premium.

“As we enter a more balanced phase for the market, it really is more important than ever to work with your ESPC solicitor estate agent when buying or selling. The right strategy really does matter.”

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