ESPC House Price Report May 2023
Property market data: Key points
- During March-May 2023, the average selling price of property across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife, and the Borders increased by 0.4% annually, taking the new price to £274,162.
- Sales volumes dropped 7.5% during this period, while new property listings decreased by 3.7%.
- The median selling time of property was 24 days, continuing the trend we’ve seen recently of selling times lengthening and returning to pre-Covid norms.
- On average, 78% of properties sold for their Home Report valuation or higher, with the average property achieving 102.9% of Home Report valuation at sale.
- A total of 25.8% of properties went to a closing date.
Property market continues to rebalance
In last month’s House Price Report we reported that selling prices in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders experienced a small decline for the first time in a number of years. In March-May 2023, there was a marginal selling price increase of 0.4%, taking the new figure to £274,162.
However, this still shows the housing market is continuing to calm and activity is returning to 2019 levels. In March-May 2019 (which can be used to compare to the pre-pandemic norms) the average selling price was £246,065, highlighting that high demand for properties has pushed up prices over the last few years.
West Fife and Kinross recorded the highest price increase over the past three months with the average selling price rising 12.1% annually to £214,902. This was followed by Midlothian where the average selling price increased by 10.4% to £260,151.
The City of Edinburgh saw property prices fall by 1.8% to £289,213.
Despite the settling back of prices, two-bed flats were particularly popular in the City of Edinburgh. In Trinity, Newhaven and Inverleith the average selling price rose by 12.1% year-on-year to 297,405. Nearby in Stockbridge, Comely Bank, Fettes and Canonmills the average selling price of two-bedroom flats was £314,798 – up 5.3% annually.
The biggest increase in selling prices in Edinburgh was seen for three-bedroom houses in Blackhall, Davidsons Mains and Silverknowes which sold for an average of £533,361 – an increase of 18.4% year-on-year.
Sellers are slightly more cautious
In March-May 2023, new property listings in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders were down by 3.7% year-on-year as sellers stayed in their properties longer before deciding to move home. This could be reflective of a more cautious approach due to market changes but there are still lots of keen buyers despite the market cooling down, which is good news for potential sellers.
The biggest increases in listings were recorded in Fettes (up 77.8%), Kirkliston (an increase of 57.1%) and Shandon which saw a rise of 45.5%.
Overall property sales volumes across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders reduced by 7.5% annually as homeowners waited to see how the market panned out before listing a property for sale.
Most areas have reported a decline in overall sales volumes: 9.1% in the City of Edinburgh, 14.6% in the Borders, 20.3% in West Fife and Kinross and 4.9% in West Lothian.
However, East Fife, East Lothian and Midlothian bucked this trend with a respective 26.2%, 2% and 1% increase in sales volumes compared to the same period last year.
Strong interest in buying and selling despite market rebalancing
There is strong evidence that the market is returning to pre-pandemic norms and that demand is slower than the last few years. However, we continue to see strong interest in home buying and selling with relatively quick selling times and high levels of the Home Report valuation being achieved.
In March-May 2023, 78% of properties sold for their Home Report valuation or higher, with the average property achieving 102.9% of Home Report valuation at sale – 4.5 percentage points lower year-on-year. This highlights that the property market in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders is still competitive.
If we compare this to March-May 2019, 76.7% of properties sold for their Home Report valuation or higher, while the average property achieved 103% of Home Report valuation at sale, showing that the market is returning to nearer to pre-pandemic norms.
Properties in East Lothian attained the most over Home Report valuation with homes achieving 104.3% of their valuations on average – a decline of 4.5% year-on-year.
This was followed by East Fife where the percentage of Home Report valuation attained was 103.1% (a 5.9 percentage point decrease annually).
Properties in the City of Edinburgh achieved 102.9% of their valuations on average – a decline of 4.1 percentage points annually.
The biggest fall in average home report valuations was recorded in West Lothian where the percentage of Home Report valuation attained was 101.2% - 6.6 percentage points lower year-on-year.
A total of 25.8% of properties in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders went to a closing date in the past three months. In March-May 2019, 28.4% of properties went to a closing date, indicating that activity levels are now very close to those before the pandemic.
Properties taking longer to sell in post-pandemic market
In the post-lockdown period of 2021/2022 demand and activity in the housing market was higher than the norm so it is not unsurprising that we are now seeing the median days to under offer lengthen as the market readjusts.
The median selling time cooled slightly when we compare year-on-year average – the median time to sell now sits at 24 days, ten days slower annually and three days slower than March-May 2019.
All ESPC areas saw a lengthening of the median time to sell but homes went under offer the fastest in West Fife & Kinross in a median time of 18 days, six days slower year-on-year. This was followed by East Lothian where properties went under offer in 22 days, nine days slower annually.
Properties in the City of Edinburgh continued the trend, taking a median of 24 days to go under offer, nine days slower compared to the same period last year.
The biggest change was recorded in West Lothian where properties went under offer 28 days slower annually at 38 days.
What does it all mean?
Paul Hilton, CEO of ESPC, says: “As we are enter the summer months, we are continuing to see clear signs that the market is cooling and returning to more normal levels last seen in 2019 before the disruption of the pandemic.
“There have been reductions in sales volumes and slower speed of sale recorded meaning sellers are being more cautious and buyers are taking affordability into account – this is also reflected in properties not going a significant amount over Home Report value.
“However, the market is still performing well with demand particularly high in Midlothian and West Fife and Kinross as buyers continue the trend of seeking larger more affordable homes with an easy commute to the Capital.
“As we enter a more balanced phase for the market, it really is more important than ever to work with your ESPC solicitor estate agent when buying or selling.
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