House Price Report October 2022

Property market data: Key points

Interest in the property market remains strong according to the latest data from ESPC.
During August-October 2022, the average selling price of property across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders rose 9.3% year-on-year to £298,771.
Sales volumes dropped by 4.3% annually during this period, while new property listings increased by 0.5%.
The median selling time of property was just 15 days, highlighting that buyers were acting quickly to secure their next home
On average, properties attained 107.7% of their Home Report valuations at sale, with 91% of properties selling for their Home Report valuation or higher.
33.2% of properties went to a closing date.

Demand for properties remains steady despite political uncertainty

The period of August-October 2022 takes in some of the recent unprecedented changes in the financial market, with an increase in the Bank of England base rate to 2.25% in September (an increase from 0.25% at the start of 2022), and rising energy bills.

However, the latest data from ESPC highlights that we continue to see strong interest in home buying and selling with quick selling times and high levels of the Home Report valuation being achieved. Whilst the market may change somewhat over the coming months given changes in mortgage availability, there is currently still strong demand. Property sellers will need to set realistic expectations on what their home will achieve, however the property market in Scotland has traditionally remained robust and we anticipate that demand for quality local housing stock will remain steady.

In August-October 2022, sales volumes across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders reduced by 4.3% annually, while new property listings were up 0.5%. It is encouraging to record the trends of seller confidence in the current property market.

We’ve seen a high level of insertions in popular locations outwith Edinburgh, with a 17% annual increase on homes listed in the Scottish Borders and a 12.5% annual increase in the popular East Lothian area. Sales volumes within these areas continues to be high, up 9.7% and 10.6% respectively, highlighting demand continuing for homes in these vibrant areas.

In terms of property sales, Dunfermline in Fife has seen the highest volumes of property sales, closely followed by Leith and Corstorphine in Edinburgh, all with increases in total sales volumes compared to the same period last year.

Buyers keen to secure their next home

In August-October 2022, buyers were still keen to secure their next home with the average selling price across Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders increasing by 9.3% year-on-year to £298,771.

Midlothian and Borders recorded some of the highest price increases over the last three months, with buyers taking advantage of more affordable homes within easy reach of the Capital. The average selling price for homes in Midlothian was £266,975, an increase of 13.7% annually, whilst property in the Borders had an average selling price of £243,122, up 11.2% year-on-year.

The City of Edinburgh saw average property selling prices rise 9.5% annually to £316,152. Following a period of high demand for properties in the past year, one and two-bedroom flats continued to be particularly popular with Edinburgh buyers.

Many popular first-time buyer areas in the City of Edinburgh saw rises in average selling prices, most noticeable in Abbeyhill and Meadowbank where one-bedroom flats had an average selling price of £189,890 over the last three months, an annual increase of 17.0%. One-bed flats in Leith Walk, Easter Road, Pilrig and Bonnington had a more modest annual increase of 4.9%, taking the average selling price here to £179,921 over the last three months.

Family homes continued to be popular in the City of Edinburgh over the last three months, with strong selling prices being secured. We’ve seen a 21.3% increase in the recent selling prices of three-bed houses in Blackhall, Davidson’s Mains and Silverknowes.

The average selling price of three-bed houses in Currie, Balerno and Juniper Green decreased 2.4% compared to the same time last year. This was an area that was particularly popular over the last two years with prices consistently rising so it is interesting to see that the market here appears to be levelling off.

The most popular property type in Dunfermline was two-bedroom flats where the selling price was up 6.2% year-on-year, bringing the new average selling price to £127,213. The average selling price of four-bedroom houses in the city rose by 9.5% to £345,783.

Home Report valuations continue to be exceeded

In August-October 2022, properties attained 107.7% of their Home Report value on average – one percentage point higher than the same period last year. Considering that 91% of properties sold for at least their Home Report valuation (up 3% points annually) this further highlights the competitive nature that is still prevalent in the property market in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders.

East Lothian properties attained the most over Home Report valuation, with properties achieving 110.7% of their valuations on average – 0.2% lower year-on-year.

This was followed by East Fife and West Fife & Kinross where the percentage of Home Report valuation attained was 107.6% (a 1.6% and 0.4% decrease year-on-year respectively).

The city of Edinburgh continued to be a desirable place to live with the area experiencing the biggest percentage change in Home Report valuation with an increase of 1.7% taking the new average to 107.4%.

Strong competition from buyers with offers being accepted quickly

Despite the cost-of-living crisis, moving home remains a good opportunity, and the property market in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife and the Borders market continued to thrive with buyers facing strong competition.

The changing economic market and mortgage product availability will likely impact selling times in the coming months, but evidence from the last three months suggests that to date there is still confidence in the market and a strong desire to secure the right property.

The median time for properties to go under offer was 15 days, one day slower than the previous year, but still far quicker than the pre-covid norm.

Homes sold the fastest in West Fife and Kinross, in a median time of 11 days (one day slower annually). Meanwhile, properties in East Lothian and Midlothian also performed strongly, with a median selling time of 13 and 14 days respectively.

Looking at Edinburgh specifically, homes sold the fastest in the North West of the city with a median selling time of 13 days. When analysing specific housing types, one and two-bedroom flats in Leith sold quickest, in 13 days.

What does it all mean?

Paul Hilton, CEO of ESPC, explains: “The past three months have shown strong competition from both buyers and sellers. While the impact of the recent economic changes on the housing market is uncertain, we believe in a sensible approach and understanding the long-term value of home ownership as the dynamics of the housing market change once again.

“We are seeing continued interest in property across all of our areas, with noticeable interest in suburbs and rural locations popular with young families and professionals, while Edinburgh city centre remains a desirable place to live with buyers paying significantly over Home Report value to secure their dream home.

“It is important that potential property buyers in Edinburgh, the Lothians, Fife or the Borders review their initial budgets. Expert advice from your ESPC solicitor estate agent on property types and the long-term value of home ownership coupled with monthly affordability is key.”

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